Gillard Government even more unstable

The Gillard Government has been on a knife-edge for so long now that we can sometimes forget how unstable it is. Developments in the last couple of weeks have been a good reminder – and have highlighted how fragile this government is.

The first development has been the departure of speaker Peter Slipper. When Slipper was appointed as speaker by Julia Gillard in late 2011, this was hailed by the press gallery as a masterstroke. Its particular advantage was that she was no longer required to rely on the vote of Andrew Wilkie, the independent Member for Denison. Wilkie’s vote was becoming increasingly difficult to secure following Gillard’s decision to abandon her commitment to him to implement the reforms to poker machine regulation that he had made a particular cause.

Instead a reliable Labor member (Harry Jenkins, the former speaker) became available to vote for Labor on every division, and a (semi-reliable) Coalition vote, Peter Slipper was removed from the equation (and only required to vote in the event of a tie).

I have not been around Parliament all that long, but I wondered about the longer term wisdom of this decision by Gillard. Older hands – on both sides of the chamber – were virtually unanimous in the view that it was a very big gamble for Julia Gillard and not one that was likely to turn out well. Slipper’s rapid departure confirms that view. It also increases Labor’s vulnerability. They have given up a reliable vote for Labor in every division ( from the new speaker, Anna Burke, who again is now only able to cast a vote if there is a tie) and replaced it with the unpredictable vote of Peter Slipper. In addition, Andrew Wilkie is likely to be looking for an opportunity to get some ‘payback’.

A second recent development has been the decision by Fair Work Australia to pursue civil penalties against former national secretary of the Health Services Union and former Labor (and now independent) Member for Dobell, Craig Thomson. This is further evidence of the unstable and compromised nature of this government. Labor is forced to rely on Thomson’s vote even though he is now being formally pursued by a Commonwealth regulator for serious breaches of his duties while he was a union secretary.

It is not clear what the trigger event might be for the collapse of this government. But one thing is clear: events of the past couple of weeks have made the Gillard government even more unstable than it already was.