TRANSCRIPT - ABC Radio Sydney Drive Monday Political Forum with Richard Glover

PAUL FLETCHER MP

Shadow Minister for Science and the Arts

Shadow Minister for Government Services and the Digital Economy

Manager of Opposition Business in the House

TRANSCRIPT

ABC Radio Sydney Drive Monday Political Forum with Richard Glover

11 NOVEMBER 2024

Richard Glover: Now the Monday Political Forum in session. Paul Fletcher, Liberal frontbencher and Federal Member for Bradfield. Paul, good afternoon to you.

Paul Fletcher: Good to be with you, Richard.

Richard Glover: With me in the studio – Charishma Kaliyanda is the New South Wales Labor MP for Liverpool.

Charishma Kaliyanda: Good afternoon, Richard.

Richard Glover: And Professor Andy Marks, who’s the Vice President of the University of Western Sydney, joins us. Good afternoon.

Andy Marks: G’day Richard.

Richard Glover: Now the mortgage or the baby. That’s how the headline writer put it in today’s Herald reporting new figures which show the nation’s birth rate has dropped to an all time low of 1.5 children per woman, a drop of 25 per cent since 2008. What are the factors behind the decline and what can we do about it? Paul Fletcher, why is it dropping so, so sharply and what can we do about it?

Paul Fletcher: Well, as Karishma says, the report points out, first of all, that this is a trend in many other advanced economies. And I think in Japan and Italy, the fertility rate has now dropped to 1.3 per woman of childbearing age. In South Korea, it’s as low as 0.6. There are a range of factors the report cites. One a rising labour force participation by women, which is a very good thing. But it points out that in 1966, only 37 per cent of women were in the workforce. In 2024, that’s 63 per cent. So obviously a very desirable thing to have happened, that we’re now drawing on the talents of half the population. But it clearly factors into people’s decisions as to when they have children. The report points out that particularly if you’re a woman who’s gone through high school education and tertiary education, you’ve probably got a pretty strong incentive and is a significant factor that will be a big issue, I think, at the next election. That’s one reason why the Coalition has committed $5 billion for enabling infrastructure for new homes and greenfield areas, because we know that there are homes ready to come to be made available. But it’s the lack of availability of things like sewage or electricity or roads, the connecting infrastructure, which is causing local councils not to be able to approve those building lots. So there are things that can be done. And perhaps one, I think, glimmer of optimism in the report is that it’s at pains to say that fertility outcomes are lower than fertility desires which I think is a jargon way of saying, if we can address some of these blockers, then we will see people deciding to have more children. 

Richard Glover: The Treasurer, Jim Chalmers, has sought to calm jitters about the impact of a second Trump presidency, saying that even if he places tariffs on Australian goods, and even larger ones on Chinese goods of course, our Treasury, our own Treasury Department’s modelling predicts only a mild economic impact on this country. Are Australians too concerned about Trump’s impact on us? Paul Fletcher.

Paul Fletcher: Well, I think it is right if you like at where the majority of our export revenues come from. That typically we’re an exporter to the countries of Asia, be it services exports in the form of education, or be it natural gas, coal, iron ore. Certainly we do export to the US but not in the same quantity. So I think on that sort of narrow, you know quantitative point, it’s probably right that even if the US does add significant tariffs, that’s not likely to have a nearly as big an impact on Australia as on some other countries. I think the more fundamental point is just the longstanding relationship between Australia and the US. And I think if you look at the first Trump presidency, in fact, Australia navigated that pretty well. And you might remember that when Malcolm Turnbull was Prime Minister, he successfully got the Trump Administration not to apply its tariffs on steel and aluminium imports to Australian companies. 

Richard Glover: Okay. Now, the Opposition Leader, Peter Dutton, today said he wants the social media ban for children under 16 in place by Christmas. I think the PM is talking about it being more like sometime next year. It does, though, represent a rare agreement between the major parties that change is needed in this area. Is it possible to work that fast? Might there be unforeseen consequences? Are we mugs to be the first in the world to contemplate doing this? All those questions. Where are you on all this, Paul?

Paul Fletcher: Well, I think the first thing to say is we have been world leading in some of the things we’ve done on social media over the last ten years or so. We established the eSafety Commissioner going back to 2015, that was really the first time any country in the world had sought to establish a special purpose regulator to deal with these issues. And a number of countries have now followed us. Of course, we legislated the News Media Bargaining Code to deal with Facebook and Google showing content generated and paid for by Australian news media businesses and not contributing to the cost of it. There was a lot of scepticism. 

Richard Glover: I thought that was great, but it has partly fallen apart, hasn’t it?

Paul Fletcher: Well, it certainly worked very effectively while we were government. There hasn’t been enough focus, I think, by the present government on rolling it over. But the point I’m really making is that it’s not at all uncommon for the big global digital platforms to say, oh well, you can’t do that. And if your country does this, you’ll be a global backwater. From people to say, oh, it’s never going to work. But the fact is that if Australia legislates and assuming the legislation is you know technically rigorous, and that’s a task of the present government, then, the track record of the platforms is to comply with it if they do business in Australia. So look, this is important. Peter Dutton really set the lead on this by committing this as something we would do if we came to government. 

Richard Glover: There’s a few other parents to this. The South Australian Premier, for instance, has been keen on for a long time. This particular success seems to have a lot of parents.

Paul Fletcher: I think the point is that what we have seen is an increasing level over time of expectations of the platforms in relation to social media, and certainly under a Coalition Government you had a series of pieces of legislation, including the Online Safety Act 2020, the eSafety Commissioner. But we’ve expressed our clear support for this idea of having age limits for social media accounts so that we’re not seeing children being exposed to content and algorithms which you know demonstrably is not in their interests. 

Richard Glover: Now the HSC is over, schoolies has begun. So what did you do in the week or so after you finished your final exams? Paul Fletcher, I’m now relying on you for some florid story about the Gold Coast.

Paul Fletcher: Well, not that florid, but I do have fond memories of a camping trip to Lake Munmorah and Budgewoi area in the Central Coast. So not terribly exotic but it was good fun with a few mates. And then after that, much like Charishma, it was time to go and find a job. So my HSC year was shortly after or just when Luna Park was reopening after the terrible fire and so I got a job there, along with a whole lot of other young people.

Richard Glover: Cleaning up vomit.

Paul Fletcher: Well, it was referred to as code five actually. 

Richard Glover: Code 5?

Paul Fletcher: When you heard over the loudspeaker, code 5 near the laughing clowns. That’s what it meant.

Richard Glover: We are out of time. Paul Fletcher, thank so much.

Paul Fletcher: Thank you.